US stocks subdued, dollar dips amid tariff uncertainty
By Lawrence Delevingne and Alun John
BOSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -U.S. shares edged slightly higher on Monday, while the dollar and oil prices dipped, after the White House exempted smartphones and computers from U.S. tariffs but President Donald Trump said that levies were still likely.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 0.4% and the S&P 500 gained 0.5%. The Nasdaq Composite added about 0.3%, boosted by technology shares including Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), whose stock gained around 2.3%. The S&P 500 rallied 5.7% last week, but was still more than 5% below where it was before what Trump calls "reciprocal" tariffs were first announced in early April. [.N]
On the face of it, the exemption of 20 product types accounting for 23% of U.S. imports from China was a boon to manufacturers. But the technology tariff news gave only a modicum of help to U.S. government bonds trying to recover from the bruising they suffered last week, and the dollar was little changed once more as the off-again, on-again trade policy gyrations left investors confused and analysts bearish on the long run.
The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs and further concessions over the weekend "lessen the near-term probability of a recession," Morgan Stanley U.S. equity strategists wrote in a note on Monday. Still, they noted that the back-and-forth on policy is still likely to exacerbate uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
"The equity market will likely remain in a wide trading range with high volatility until we have more certainty on the depth of the growth slowdown and the timing of a recovery," they wrote.
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads.The relative optimism was felt in Europe and Asia as well, outperforming also because they missed the tail end of the bounce on Wall Street on Friday.
Europe’s broad STOXX 600 index rose about 2.7%, having lost 2% last week, and MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.6% after shedding more than 4% last week. (EU)
Tech firms and the broader supply chain were the biggest gainers in Europe, after giants in Apple’s supply chain surged in Asia.
The market also has more earnings to weather this week. Goldman Sachs, on Monday said profit rose 15% in the first quarter, fueled by stock traders who capitalized on volatile markets, sending its shares up about 2%. Bank of America and Citigroup (NYSE:C) are due to report later in the week.
Numbers from chipmaker TSMC will be a highlight given Trump’s plan to investigate the entire global semiconductor supply chain.
In terms of economic data, March numbers showed a 12.4% jump in Chinese exports as firms rushed in orders ahead of Trump’s tariffs.
On the docket this week are U.S. retail sales and Chinese gross domestic product, while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Wednesday, when he will almost certainly be quizzed on the prospect of rate cuts and the recent stress in the Treasury market.
NOT SO SAFE
U.S. Treasuries were trying to eke out a recovery with the 10-year yield down about 7 basis points at 4.421%. But since it rose 50 bps last week, the largest weekly rise in borrowing costs in decades, any excitement at the news was fairly constrained.
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads.Last week’s rise in yields came alongside a fall in the dollar, both safe havens like the yen and Swiss franc, but also the euro. The slide continued on Monday, with the dollar index down 0.2%
The recent declines can be explained by overseas investors flooding out of U.S. assets to move back home, though some are asking broader questions.
"Any sustained environment of a lower U.S. dollar, lower bond prices, and lower equity prices suggests to us capital outflow from U.S. assets," Wells Fargo Investment Institute strategists wrote in a note on Monday. "We believe it reflects evaporating U.S. growth exceptionalism and reduced attraction at the margin for dollar assets for reserve purposes amid erratic U.S. decision-making."
Japanese officials are gearing up for trade negotiations with the United States that will likely touch on currency policy, with some officials privately bracing for Washington to call on Tokyo to prop up the yen.
They might not need to work too hard given the dollar had taken a beating from worries the erratic nature of Trump’s trade policy was shaking investor faith in U.S. assets.
On Monday, the dollar fell on the yen again, down 0.3% to 143.08, after hitting a six-month low at 142.05 last week. The euro was little changed at $1.135, still near a three-year top of $1.1474 hit last week. The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered certain to cut rates by a quarter point to 2.25%.
In commodity markets, spot gold fell about 1% on Monday to $3,206, although global uncertainty has proven a windfall to gold prices which surged to all-time peaks at $3,245 an ounce. [GOL/]
3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads.Oil prices were choppy amid U.S. tariff uncertainty, Chinese data showing a sharp rebound in crude imports in March, and concerns that the trade war between the United States and China could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand. [O/R]
U.S. crude was last down 0.85% to $60.98 a barrel and Brent dropped to $64.36 per barrel, down 0.62% on the day.
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