Humanoid robot industry: Bernstein makes 4 bold, educated long-term guesses

Investing.com -- Bernstein analysts outlined “bold yet educated guesses” for the humanoid robot industry over the next twenty-five years.

1) The investment bank forecasts that annual shipments of humanoid robots may exceed 1 million units between 2030 and 2032, suggesting a market size of $15-20 billion during that period. They also predict that shipments could rival those of cars within the following two to three decades.

2) According to the firm’s analysis, the supply chain for humanoid robots will likely resemble that of the automotive industry, with a typical gross profit margin (GPM) of 20-25%.

3) Bernstein identifies humanoid original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), finger actuators, and tactile sensors for dexterous hands as the most investable segments in the long term.

4) Lastly, the analysts believe that China, which holds a unique advantage in product and use case diversification, could nurture several global industry leaders in the humanoid space, such as Unitree and Huawei.

Over the next 3-5 years, Bernstein expects a rapid multiplication of humanoid robots performing specific tasks, particularly "pick and place" functions, followed by robots undertaking generalized tasks in initially specific and then more generalized environments.

“Each stage would increase the adoption maximum potential by ten-fold,” analysts led by Jay Huang said. “As the humanoid “brain” (VLA model) improves and applications become more complex, dexterous hands with tactile sensing could become critical in 5+ years.”

By 2030, key adoption areas for humanoid robots are predicted to include delivery, material handling, simple installation in factories and warehouses, and isolated tasks in hospitals and nursing homes.

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Despite the robot’s capability potentially reaching several tens of millions of units, actual adoption is expected to be much lower due to competition from humans, automated guided vehicles (AGVs), and industrial robots, as well as return on investment (ROI) considerations.

Bernstein estimates an actual penetration rate of approximately 5%, equating to around 1 million units shipped annually in the 2030-2032 timeframe.

Meanwhile, the analysts remain skeptical about the widespread adoption of two-legged humanoid robot designs, except in cases where emotional benefits are a primary value.

They note that companies with strong entertainment intellectual properties or those making artificial skin could be among the early beneficiaries of humanoid robots, enabling products like robotic "Iron Man" and robotic companions.

“We acknowledge a large gray area, where two-legged designs are not necessary but viable. Most piloted industrial use cases fall in this category,” analysts added.

Bernstein compares the humanoid robot industry to automotive, noting similar margin profiles of 20-25% gross profit and 5-15% operating profit.

The firm also highlights that successful OEMs will dominate value creation, while key high-value components include finger actuators and tactile sensors. While startups may initially flood the market, first-mover advantage is limited.

Regarding China, analysts observe that, as in EVs and industrial robots, the country moves quickly in product and use case expansion.

Unlike U.S. firms that aim for a “holy grail” solution, China follows a “natural selection” approach with diverse models.

“For emerging techs, the importance of trial-and-error products and many willing initial users, hence the advantage of the Chinese market, is usually underestimated,” the report concluded.

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