Cantor bullish on SailPoint as machine identity push to extend growth runway

Investing.com -- Cantor Fitzgerald began coverage of SailPoint with an Overweight rating and a $29 price target, saying that the identity‑security firm’s market lead and expanding product lineup position it for “mid‑20%” annual recurring‑revenue growth over the next several years.

The target implies about 27% upside to SailPoint’s current trading price of $23.34. It is trading 2% early Monday.

Cantor called SailPoint the “best‑of‑breed in the Identity Governance and Administration space,” noting that the Austin, Texas‑based company captured roughly 21% of the fragmented $9 billion market. The brokerage said SailPoint’s shift to a subscription software model during its two‑year stint in private hands should support steady margin improvement; it projects gross margins of roughly 77% and operating margins of 16% in fiscal 2026.

SailPoint returned to Nasdaq in February, raising about $1 billion, and has focused on new use cases such as non‑employee risk, data‑access security and cloud‑infrastructure entitlement management. Cantor said those modules doubled their revenue contribution year on year in the March quarter.

A major opportunity lies in governing machine identities, service accounts, software bots and emerging AI agents that now outnumber humans in many enterprises. Cantor estimates that market at nearly $12 billion this year, growing at more than 12% annually.

Market leadership and expanding use cases support upside, the note said, adding that early moves in machine‑identity and agent security could “unlock greenfield opportunities” as organisations automate more tasks.

Risks include intensifying competition from rivals such as Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA), Saviynt and CyberArk, along with customers’ appetite for fully integrated identity platforms rather than partnered solutions. Even so, Cantor expects SailPoint’s average contract size and share gains to keep climbing as orchestration tools make it easier for customers to plug thousands of applications into SailPoint’s system.

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Cantor values the stock at 12.6 times its forecast fiscal‑2026 revenue, a premium it says is justified by the company’s pace of innovation and the still‑untapped share of enterprises relying on manual identity controls.

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