Hong Kong stocks at a three-year high on China outlook

By Tom Westbrook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares rose to a three-year peak and led Asian markets higher on Tuesday, as investors turn positive on the outlook for China, cheering recent data and promises to further support consumption in the world’s second-largest economy.

The Hang Seng was up 2% and its 23% year-to-date gain is easily the largest of any major market.

The upbeat mood is likely to continue in Europe, with futures pointing to a strong start. EUROSTOXX 50 futures gained 0.35%, while DAX futures rose 0.43%.

All eyes during European hours will be on Germany as its lower house of parliament gears up to vote on a massive surge in borrowing that could boost Europe’s largest economy and stimulate growth across the region.

On Monday, the OECD forecast U.S. President Donald Trump’s higher tariffs will drag down growth in Canada, Mexico and the U.S. while driving up inflation.

Yet China has been an unlikely winner of Trump’s burst of tariffs and cuts to government spending in his first two months in office, as fears of a U.S. slowdown turn investors abroad.

"Momentum and sentiment are shifting now as well in a positive way," said Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management in Singapore.

Short sellers rushed to cover bets against the New Zealand dollar, which is sensitive to Chinese consumers via food exports, sending it to a three-month high of $0.58295. The kiwi was last 0.13% lower at $0.58145. [NZD/]

The China-sensitive Australian dollar hit a one-month high just shy of $0.64 in early trading before easing to trade 0.27% lower at $0.6368. China’s yuan hovered near its strongest levels of the year so far. [CNY/]

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On Sunday, China announced childcare subsidies and a "special action plan" to boost domestic consumption and on Monday, data showed retail sales growth quickened in January-February.

Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit the U.S. in the not-too-distant future, further raising expectations that some sort of breakthrough deal could reduce tariffs.

The Hong Kong dollar is parked in the strong half of its trading band against the dollar and Hong Kong interbank rates have been falling lately, pointing to the weight of money pouring into the financial hub.

Mainland shares made more modest gains, while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific stocks rose 1% with markets in Seoul, Sydney and Taipei also higher.

Japan’s Nikkei bounced 1.5%, putting it on course for its sharpest rise in three weeks. (T)

The outlier in the region was Indonesia, with Jakarta shares plunging about 7% to a 3-1/2-year low on worries over tit-for-tat tariffs as well as the country’s fiscal plans and growth outlook. (SI)

Overnight on Wall Street, stocks stabilised but the mood remains fragile leading into April, when Trump’s threatened reciprocal tariffs are set to take effect. [.N]

Softer-than-expected retail sales and factory activity figures kept downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and on U.S. yields, opening further gains for gold. [GOL/]

Gold marked a record high at $3,017 an ounce during Asian hours. The euro eased a bit to $1.0905 and sterling, which touched a four-month top overnight, traded a whisker short of $1.30. [GBP/]

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Ten-year Treasury yields were steady at 4.2908%. [US/]

Ahead in the day, a German economic survey is due, though markets’ focus is on the U.S. Federal Reserve, which concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday, and the outcome of a phone call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump said he would talk to Putin about ending the Ukraine war - a prospect which has pushed down on European gas prices and sent the euro rallying in recent weeks.

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